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Thomas F. Ducey, Jessica C. Collins, Kyoung S. Ro, Bryan L. Woodbury, D. Dee Griffin
《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年 第11卷 第3期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-017-0930-x
关键词： High-temperature carbonization Microbial DNA Livestock mortality
Projections of heat-related excess mortality in China due to climate change, population and aging
《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第11期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1732-y
● Four scenarios were used to project heat-related excess mortality in China.
LEVERAGING LIVESTOCK TO PROMOTE A CIRCULAR FOOD SYSTEM
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期
Livestock provide multifaceted services to human societies worldwide. In developing countries, they are crucial assets and safety net for rural poor, and they provide nutrients-dense food to nourish people. In developed economies, growth in demand for animal-derived food is slowing while attention is growing over the role of livestock farming in an enhanced circular food system for sustainability. This analysis, focusing on the modern food systems in developed countries, aims to highlight the unique function of livestock that helps people re-harvest and upcycle crop and food residues generated along the food chain that are otherwise unfit for human consumption. First, human-unusable crop and food residue materials are described in three broad categories based on their characteristics and potential feeding attributes; the magnitude of biomass materials that are already used in routine animal feeding as well as residues that remain as underutilized resources are illustrated using the USA as an example. Then, the research and technology development critically needed for the future is discussed. As the world strives to produce more food with smaller environmental and climate footprints, upcycling the residual biomass via livestock for food production presents a viable pathway toward improved resource use, reduced pollution and enhanced food system efficiency.
《医学前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第1期 页码 58-67 doi: 10.1007/s11684-022-0937-y
关键词： cardiac disease mortality aged population lung transplantation
The main and added effects of heat on mortality in 33 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2013
《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1681-5
● The main and added effect from heat co-existed in China.
关键词： Heat Main effect Added effect Mortality Vulnerable population
Temporal trend of mortality from major cancers in Xuanwei, China
null
《医学前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第4期 页码 487-495 doi: 10.1007/s11684-015-0413-z
Although a number of studies have examined the etiology of lung cancer in Xuanwei County, China, other types of cancer in this county have not been reported systematically. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend of eight major cancers in Xuanwei County using data from three mortality surveys (1973–1975, 1990–1992, and 2004–2005). The Chinese population in 1990 was used as a standard population to calculate age-standardized mortality rates. Cancers of lung, liver, breast, brain, esophagus, leukemia, rectum, and stomach were identified as the leading cancers in this county in terms of mortality rate. During the three time periods, lung cancer remained as the most common type of cancer. The mortality rates for all other types of cancer were lower than those of the national average, but an increasing trend was observed for all the cancers, particularly from 1990–1992 to 2004–2005. The temporal trend could be partly explained by changes in risk factors, but it also may be due to the improvement in cancer diagnosis and screening. Further epidemiological studies are warranted to systematically examine the underlying reasons for the temporal trend of the major cancers in Xuanwei County.
《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第1期 页码 102-110 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0850-9
关键词： COVID-19 RAS inhibitor hypertension all-cause mortality
null
《医学前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第4期 页码 477-485 doi: 10.1007/s11684-013-0284-0
This study aims to construct a logistically derived additive score for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in Chinese patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Data from 9839 consecutive CABG patients in 43 Chinese centers were collected between 2007 and 2008 from the Chinese Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Registry. This database was randomly divided into developmental and validation subsets (9:1). The data in the developmental dataset were used to develop the model using logistic regression. Calibration and discrimination characteristics were assessed using the validation dataset. Thresholds were defined for each model to distinguish different risk groups. After excluding 275 patients with incomplete information, the overall mortality rate of the remaining 9564 patients was 2.5%. The SinoSCORE model was constructed based on 11 variables: age, preoperative NYHA stage III or IV, chronic renal failure, extracardiac arteriopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative atrial fibrillation or flutter (within 2βweeks), left ventricular ejection fraction, other elective surgery, combined valve procedures, preoperative critical state, and BMI. In the developmental dataset, calibration using a Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was at =β0.44 and discrimination based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.80. In the validation dataset, the HL test was at =β0.34 and the area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.78. A logistically derived additive model for predicting in-hospital mortality among Chinese patients undergoing CABG was developed based on the most up-to-date multi-center data from China.
关键词： coronary artery bypass grafting risk stratification in-hospital mortality
INTEGRATING CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS—TOWARDS AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT
Yong HOU, Oene OENEMA, Fusuo ZHANG
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期 页码 1-14 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2021384
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CROP-LIVESTOCK FARMS IN AFRICA
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期
Crop-livestock farms across Africa are highly variable due to in agroecological and socioeconomic factors, the latter shaping the demand and supply of livestock products. Crop-livestock farms in Africa in the 20-first century are very different from most mixed farms elsewhere in the world. African crop-livestock farms are smaller in size, have fewer livestock, lower productivity and less dependency on imported feed than farms in most countries of Europe, the Americas and the intensive agricultural systems of Asia. This paper discusses the role African crop-livestock farms have in the broader socio-agricultural economy, and how these are likely to change adapting to pressures brought on by the intensification of food systems. This intensification implies increasing land productivity (more food per hectare), often leading to more livestock heads per farm, producing fertilized feeds in croplands and importing feed supplements from the market. This discussion includes (1) the links between crop yields, soil fertility and crop-livestock integration, (2) the increasing demand for livestock products and the land resources required to meet to this demand, and (3) the opportunities to integrate broader societal goals into the development of crop-livestock farms. There is ample room for development of crop-livestock farms in Africa, and keeping integration as part of the development will help prevent many of the mistakes and environmental problems related to the intensification of livestock production observed elsewhere in the world. This development can integrate biodiversity, climate change adaptation and mitigation to the current goals of increasing productivity and food security. The inclusion of broader goals could help farmers access the level of finance required to implement changes.
VALORIZATION OF LIVESTOCK WASTE AND CARBON NEUTRALITY
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第10卷 第3期 页码 333-340 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2023513
EXPLORING THE RECYCLING OF MANURE FROM URBAN LIVESTOCK FARMS: A CASE STUDY IN ETHIOPIA
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期
• Livestock manure was the main organic waste in urban and peri-urban areas.
• Manure production will increase by a factor of 3–10 between 2015–2050.
• Only 13%–38% of excreted N by livestock will be recycled in croplands.
• Intensification of urban livestock production greatly increased N surpluses.
• Reducing population growth and increasing livestock productivity needed.
Urban population growth is driving the expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) in developing countries. UPA is providing nutritious food to residents but the manures produced by UPA livestock farms and other wastes are not properly recycled. This paper explores the effects of four scenarios: (1) a reference scenario (business as usual), (2) increased urbanization, (3) UPA intensification, and (4) improved technology, on food-protein self-sufficiency, manure nitrogen (N) recycling and balances for four different zones in a small city (Jimma) in Ethiopia during the period 2015-2050. An N mass flow model with data from farm surveys, field experiments and literature was used. A field experiment was conducted and N use efficiency and N fertilizer replacement values differed among the five types of composts derived from urban livestock manures and kitchen wastes. The N use efficiency and N fertilizer replacement values were used in the N mass flow model.
Livestock manures were the main organic wastes in urban areas, although only 20 to 40% of animal-sourced food consumed was produced in UPA, and only 14 to 19% of protein intake by residents was animal-based. Scenarios indicate that manure production in UPA will increase 3 to 10 times between 2015 and 2050, depending on urbanization and UPA intensification. Only 13 to 38% of manure N will be recycled in croplands. Farm-gate N balances of UPA livestock farms will increase to>1 t·ha−1 in 2050. Doubling livestock productivity and feed protein conversion to animal-sourced food will roughly halve manure N production.
Costs of waste recycling were high and indicate the need for government incentives. Results of these senarios are wake-up calls for all stakeholders and indicate alternative pathways.
INTEGRATING CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS—TOWARDS AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期
REINTEGRATION OF CROP-LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS IN EUROPE: AN OVERVIEW
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期
• ICLS combines the benefits of specialization with increased resilience of the system.
• Clear opportunities but also barriers for ICLS were observed.
• ICLS need to be embedded within future environmental legislation.
• ICLS systems with a range of intensities are needed to support a biodiverse landscape.
Ongoing specialization of crop and livestock systems provides socioeconomic benefits to the farmer but has led to greater externalization of environmental costs when compared to mixed farming systems. Better integration of crop and livestock systems offers great potential to rebalance the economic and environmental trade-offs in both systems. The aims of this study were to analyze changes in farm structure and review and evaluate the potential for reintegrating specialized intensive crop and livestock systems, with specific emphasis on identifying the co-benefits and barriers to reintegration. Historically, animals were essential to recycle nutrients in the farming system but this became less important with the availability of synthetic fertilisers. Although mixed farm systems can be economically attractive, benefits of scale combined with socio-economic factors have resulted in on-farm and regional specialization with negative environmental impacts. Reintegration is therefore needed to reduce nutrient surpluses at farm, regional and national levels, and to improve soil quality in intensive cropping systems. Reintegration offers practical and cost-effective options to widen crop rotations and promotes the use of organic inputs and associated benefits, reducing dependency on synthetic fertilisers, biocides and manure processing costs. Circular agriculture goes beyond manure management and requires adaptation of both food production and consumption patterns, matching local capacity to produce with food demand. Consequently, feed transport, greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient surpluses and nutrient losses to the environment can be reduced. It is concluded that reintegration of specialized farms within a region can provide benefits to farmers but may also lead to further intensification of land use. New approaches within a food system context offer alternatives for reintegration, but require strong policy incentives which show clear, tangible and lasting benefits for farmers, the environment and the wider community.
LEVERAGING LIVESTOCK TO PROMOTE A CIRCULAR FOOD SYSTEM
Zhengxia DOU
《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期 页码 188-192 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2020370
标题 作者 时间 类型 操作
Hydrothermal carbonization of livestock mortality for the reduction of pathogens and microbially-derived
Thomas F. Ducey, Jessica C. Collins, Kyoung S. Ro, Bryan L. Woodbury, D. Dee Griffin
期刊论文
Projections of heat-related excess mortality in China due to climate change, population and aging
期刊论文
Association of cardiac disease with the risk of post-lung transplantation mortality in Chinese recipients
期刊论文
Renin--angiotensin system inhibitor is associated with the reduced risk of all-cause mortality in COVID
期刊论文
logistically derived additive prediction model for post-coronary artery bypass grafting in-hospital mortality
null
期刊论文
INTEGRATING CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS—TOWARDS AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT
Yong HOU, Oene OENEMA, Fusuo ZHANG
期刊论文
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